Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x966d3ba6b423d0bed4a16dd940bc57faca5c837a9970dc66544ce5ba1b755933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,372$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.24 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 55c | 547.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 498.87$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 417.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 66c | 299.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 263.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 251$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 204.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 40c | 204.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 203.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 203.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 201.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 44c | 200.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 156.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 153.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 150.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 147.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 146$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 142.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 137.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 38c | 123.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 123.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 44c | 123.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 44c | 112.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 63c | 108.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 107.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 103.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 100.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 61c | 98.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 96.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 95.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 45c | 89.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 34c | 88.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 59c | 87.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 47c | 86.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 86.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 36c | 83.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 34c | 80.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 40c | 79.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 36c | 66.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 66.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed No | 45c | 64.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 61.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 52c | 60.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 57c | 56.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 56.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed Yes | 54c | 54.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 44c | 53.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 56c | 51.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 51.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 51.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…315fbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 47c | 49.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 46.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 46.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 43c | 44.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 43c | 43.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed Yes | 56c | 42.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 37c | 42.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…e8f2backed Yes | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 41c | 40.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 45c | 37.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 69c | 36.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 36.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 53c | 35.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 65c | 35.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 41c | 35.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 43c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 56c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 33.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 32.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.