Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc17d847f3eb9d1db4a52e887b40ddc936bab07c1ab10cab6b7468583d03426f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 559.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 7c | 377.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 272.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 27c | 272.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…edb3backed Yes | 25c | 227.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 10c | 171.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 166.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 404 | 32.7%132 W · 272 L | +24.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 129.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 74c | 128.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 119.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 10c | 97.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 136 | 13.2%18 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f68…79b1backed No | 80c | 73.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 73.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 65.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 75c | 53.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 76c | 52.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 75c | 46.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 43.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 41.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 23.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 73c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 78c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.