Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89412c8374525e45dfa4df8722f817b09d7232e2db71ecb34a96deedd44f3e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 7c | 904.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 802.23$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 4c | 264.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 252.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 6c | 198.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 176.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 163.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 162$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 152.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 151.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 122.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 109.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 50c | 107.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +89%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 98.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 34c | 96.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 86.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 75.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 69c | 69.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked Yes | 36c | 65.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 48c | 56.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…0b89backed Yes | 38c | 42.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 33c | 38.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 35c | 37.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 62c | 36.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 32.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 63c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 67c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…3fd5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…71a8backed No | 63c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 58c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.