NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1e9387efac26de05fc14833f6fb5a3870fd0be06b7d3e924508b178b4750733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,388 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 43c | 1,840$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.8 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 815.54$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.78 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 44c | 544.78$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 56c | 261.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 56c | 247.47$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 56c | 230.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 181.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 98.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 89.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 77.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 60c | 73.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 55c | 53.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Over | 56c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 56c | 22.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Over | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. BruinsBruins won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.