NHL · resolved market
Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x634ba1d39036a5c1c8496b90f7623038f78ab35db2e8004c7353e7babe8173ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Bruins, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,908 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Capitals | 60c | 40,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bruins | 40c | 39,988$15,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,992.5 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Bruins | 33c | 3,411$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.79 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals | 68c | 768$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.24 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 67c | 700.6$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.75 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Capitals | 67c | 691.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.63 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 66c | 618.82$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.42 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals | 67c | 492.77$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.16 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 29c | 401.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.72 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 57c | 270.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Capitals | 71c | 261.83$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals | 53c | 254.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Capitals | 68c | 200.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +86%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Capitals | 69c | 173$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Bruins | 32c | 159.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bruins | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 67c | 128.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Bruins | 40c | 119.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Capitals | 70c | 113.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Capitals | 70c | 108$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Capitals | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bruins | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…4d7abacked Bruins | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Capitals | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Capitals | 58c | 86.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…ba5fbacked Bruins | 32c | 51.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Bruins | 32c | 50.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Bruins | 32c | 49.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Bruins | 32c | 49.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Bruins | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Bruins | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Bruins | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…5930backed Bruins | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 69c | 20.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Capitals | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. BruinsBruins won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.