NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3093601aefe5e35306a68f41832fc5b796706f6bfaab048f62087556e769184f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,054 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 45c | 15,000$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,749.9 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 55c | 14,730$8,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,628.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…3f4bbacked Under | 27c | 862.71$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 73c | 771.35$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.24 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 447.16$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.95 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 357.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 334.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 28c | 319.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 284.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 35c | 211.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5a…d8f4backed Under | 40c | 186.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 169.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 34c | 111$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Under | 48c | 104.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 45c | 91.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 87.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 30c | 56.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 70c | 56.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 59c | 48.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 62c | 43.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…40ddbacked Over | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…9374backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 46c | 36.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 53c | 32.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 34c | 30.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 39c | 27.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…aacebacked Under | 62c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5this page
- Capitals vs. BruinsBruins won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.