Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24a1670d0f62c38fc3b45ef4344c66e3205da8e10d5a36838dde17a494fa107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 663.43$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 6c | 424.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 9c | 368.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 26c | 286.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 265.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 9c | 182.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 13c | 148.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 139.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 126.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 115.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 9c | 108.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 103.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 19c | 101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 20c | 98.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 84.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 79c | 79.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 79c | 75.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 74.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…b33cbacked Yes | 26c | 63.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 20c | 55.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 75c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.