Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f3f317d5696d62ab31870f5a96b516ecf4324e78314fe11943b6418c6eba1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 24c | 370.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 70c | 357.24$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 30c | 262.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 36c | 242.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 202.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 28c | 157.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 155.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 136.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 129.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 59c | 112.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 95.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 93.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 31c | 92.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 90.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 77c | 88.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 86.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 66c | 80.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 79.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 66c | 74.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 76c | 74.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 23c | 56.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 55.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 52.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 59c | 43.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 65c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 44c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 77c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 155 | 40%62 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.