Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc25b2b668b4d2d030313cbfcc73fb05469c81652fd93f94238c1caddd0602605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 23c | 6,751$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.6 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 60c | 3,363$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.64 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Yes | 46c | 2,391$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 54c | 1,388$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed No | 28c | 1,302$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,086$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…7c72backed Yes | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 421$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 45c | 241.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 44c | 225.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0860…d30fbacked Yes | 44c | 114.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 47c | 53.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…9e5fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…4bf6backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 27.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-17?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-09-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.