Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc25c484a3a3cdd807f7232dbc6c06673865aa5da7159c9fd0cfec3488c86bad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 19c | 5,411$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,367.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 4,996$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 16c | 1,747$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.91 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 1,336$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.68 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b0e1backed Yes | 27c | 1,200$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,038$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.1 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 1,012$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.77 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 972.09$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.15 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 74c | 665.45$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 74c | 619.03$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.08 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 74c | 619.03$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.08 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 74c | 526$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 499.9$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.93 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 22c | 492.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 69c | 422.66$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 19c | 362.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 27c | 359.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.79 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed No | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Yes | 19c | 332.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.09 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 9c | 328.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 299.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.11 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Yes | 31c | 269.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 42c | 252.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 73c | 196.47$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 13c | 186.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 27c | 98.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 95.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 13c | 89.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 27c | 74.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 16c | 66.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 64c | 50.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 74c | 50.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 46c | 48.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…6b7ebacked No | 37c | 45.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 26c | 41.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 24.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 72c | 17.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4415backed No | 74c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.