UFC · resolved market
Dana White's Contender Series: Ronald Humphrey vs. Alexis Miranda (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc273d469ffac178979daae25e47974bf87f24b4d8b08614b63082be385cfc5ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ronald Humphreyof Ronald Humphrey, Alexis Miranda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Alexis Miranda | 10c | 3,278$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Alexis Miranda | 4c | 3,141$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Alexis Miranda | 2c | 2,486$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Alexis Miranda | 7c | 1,800$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Alexis Miranda | 13c | 1,565$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alexis Miranda | 8c | 835.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Alexis Miranda | 10c | 801$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Alexis Miranda | 11c | 759.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Alexis Miranda | 13c | 642.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Alexis Miranda | 6c | 594.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Alexis Miranda | 12c | 523$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Alexis Miranda | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Alexis Miranda | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Alexis Miranda | 7c | 400.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Alexis Miranda | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Alexis Miranda | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Alexis Miranda | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Alexis Miranda | 10c | 213.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Alexis Miranda | 9c | 185$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf0…ffe4backed Alexis Miranda | 11c | 183.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…42c1backed Alexis Miranda | 12c | 175.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Alexis Miranda | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…2226backed Alexis Miranda | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Alexis Miranda | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alexis Miranda | 14c | 107.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…6864backed Alexis Miranda | 9c | 106.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Ronald Humphrey | 55c | 57.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dana White's Contender Series: Ronald Humphrey vs. Alexis Miranda (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.