South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc282e575295b4f8776b590124e89c9ea9bbb4cbc81207e830a044c2707016b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigres de la UANLof CD Guadalajara, Tigres de la UANL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CD Guadalajara | 4c | 1,360$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…e594backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 1,198$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…e6f2backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 670$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd50…0848backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 652$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…eb30backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 652$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…4600backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 651$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…0f1cbacked CD Guadalajara | 5c | 613$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed CD Guadalajara | 7c | 588.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…8fe4backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 526$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…1956backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 510$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…b4b8backed CD Guadalajara | 5c | 489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed CD Guadalajara | 4c | 356.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Tigres de la UANL | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)this page
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Tigres de la UANL won
- Spread: Tigres de la UANL (-1.5)Tigres de la UANL won
- Spread: Tigres de la UANL (-2.5)Tigres de la UANL won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.