NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29ec3f6cd9a510c54a48214ebe248de482c0c156f7da88d5c336b19c56a1b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 40c | 1,818$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.51 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Over | 62c | 1,611$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 62c | 673.47$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.04 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 38c | 463.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.61 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 60c | 325.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 39c | 303.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.11 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 38c | 302.94$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.82 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 61c | 248.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.37 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 39c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 63c | 63.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 61c | 55.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…ecc5backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…1b31backed Over | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…eb6cbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Over | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.