NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09223f9eb44f978a74841ac3f5e4d3d83fc31dbe85ae2bfce886bffc61c001a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 32c | 1,534$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.23 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 569.89$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.77 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 33c | 243.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…d7f3backed Lightning | 30c | 152$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…87b7backed Lightning | 29c | 148$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…6bbebacked Lightning | 28c | 145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…25ecbacked Lightning | 30c | 144$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…5b2bbacked Lightning | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…a086backed Lightning | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…3a36backed Lightning | 29c | 141$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…de63backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…5f36backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…3157backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…3234backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 133$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…de1dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 132$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked Maple Leafs | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…3ccabacked Lightning | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…4fd9backed Lightning | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…f230backed Lightning | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Lightning | 29c | 128$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…d76cbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 128$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…2797backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 119$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…a6ecbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…c452backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 118$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…db09backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 116$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lightning | 30c | 51.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 31.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 30.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…6a6bbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.