NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a8a207383753bc9a68540e064a29a4d5375d58a056cb5ce31ff035ed7f6b72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Lightning | 1c | 1,757$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Lightning | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 864$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 68c | 619.78$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 70c | 552.28$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 30c | 465.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.08 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Maple Leafs | 27c | 179.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 179.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…11c8backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 166$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…ee08backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…98e2backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 157$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…3ccabacked Lightning | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 153.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…96c8backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 148$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…ec97backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 147$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Lightning | 67c | 145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…db09backed Lightning | 67c | 145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…9b7abacked Lightning | 67c | 142$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Lightning | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb561…0bf7backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 137$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked Lightning | 67c | 136$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…8a39backed Lightning | 67c | 124$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 53.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 72c | 51.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 50.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 45.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Lightning | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Lightning | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafef…18a2backed Lightning | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Lightning | 76c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.