NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd3c69327aa87472b64a399cf4e8eae81c54e75226bf735b7a9aa8875b207fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,223,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,223,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,462 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Maple Leafs | 47c | 174,342$81,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,657.61 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning | 37c | 160,000$60,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,000.03 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 101,444$48,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,750.85 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 52c | 99,577$51,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,780.14 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs | 73c | 92,433$67,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,629.25 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning | 52c | 42,998$22,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,217.34 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Lightning | 52c | 42,198$21,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,942.7 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Lightning | 55c | 37,904$20,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,847.05 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 31,213$14,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,167.14 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 52c | 26,871$13,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,973.15 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 52c | 21,991$11,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,457.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 37c | 21,949$8,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,122.48 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Lightning | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Lightning | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Lightning | 55c | 18,888$10,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,388.4 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 17,674$11,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,897.53 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 47c | 16,881$7,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,988.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…f06fbacked Maple Leafs | 45c | 15,000$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,249.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Lightning | 55c | 13,534$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 12,498$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.94 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 53c | 12,000$6,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,360.06 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 10,394$4,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,404.75 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 9,567$6,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.42 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 49c | 9,112$4,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,452.46 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning | 54c | 7,991$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.14 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…61d4backed Lightning | 49c | 7,310$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…5f0ebacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 7,304$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Lightning | 55c | 6,666$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.3 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 53c | 6,604$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 6,431$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.93 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 6,369$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Lightning | 54c | 6,316$3,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,410.88 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…edb6backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 6,100$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…f5fdbacked Lightning | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 6,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.96 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 5,806$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.98 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Lightning | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…4148backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 5,162$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…4d03backed Lightning | 55c | 5,142$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 80c | 5,085$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.56 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…2f15backed Lightning | 48c | 5,080$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,438.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7c…08a5backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 5,078$2,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 5,078$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.32 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ca…b99dbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 4,947$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.8 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cd…66d6backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 4,900$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…fe58backed Lightning | 51c | 4,896$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…2a89backed Lightning | 55c | 4,882$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…aed4backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 4,841$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…3b72backed Lightning | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…23d6backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 3,555$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.25 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…4d41backed Lightning | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Lightning | 52c | 3,360$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.44 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Lightning | 43c | 3,287$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.93 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 3,105$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.46 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…1e8bbacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lightning | 53c | 3,000$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 2,942$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 2,904$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.35 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Lightning | 43c | 2,793$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.61 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…aa0bbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 2,591$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ff…9564backed Lightning | 51c | 2,557$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Lightning | 53c | 2,328$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…24cdbacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 2,312$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 2,279$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.51 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 2,200$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6a…2d4abacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 2,036$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Lightning | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 2,000$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…60e0backed Lightning | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…90d4backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x723f…c7d3backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…3291backed Lightning | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae1…faefbacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce4…ca78backed Lightning | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…afcebacked Lightning | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 1,937$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.59 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 48c | 1,910$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.05 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Lightning | 1c | 1,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 1,850$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Lightning | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,792$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.58 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lightning | 34c | 1,731$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.74 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Maple Leafs | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 1,699$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.96 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 1,644$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.44 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 53c | 1,624$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.97 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 1,588$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.04 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…dad5backed Lightning | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafsthis page
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.