Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b64f27e604b93a3f8456e224f1d44d6e4c34029ad0b2e5813354950d892394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 731.5$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.5 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 519$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 31c | 356.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 236.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 224.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 169.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…9e9abacked Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 97.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 23c | 84.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 83.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 77.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 70.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 73c | 60.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 50.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…fa13backed Yes | 38c | 45.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 24c | 43.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 40.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 63c | 36.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 68c | 22.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.