Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c173085f86df51ff63aaf18f0d0d4d0f03f1f194a24ef7467575b8bd37c679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefcf…0fc1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,083$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…131fbacked No | 2c | 901.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 77c | 797.31$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 57c | 262.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 32c | 248.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6589…39e2backed Yes | 65c | 246.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 71c | 199.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked No | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…3e30backed No | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 22c | 177.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…e693backed Yes | 51c | 155$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…f27ebacked No | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked No | 23c | 149.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 70c | 140.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 78c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed No | 29c | 137.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 72c | 127.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…d452backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…ebdebacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…b655backed No | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…844fbacked Yes | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed Yes | 75c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…97d9backed No | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…be8fbacked Yes | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…4f2abacked No | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…617fbacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…ab6ebacked No | 49c | 109.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…989dbacked Yes | 51c | 108.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…28f7backed No | 28c | 107.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…0a85backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3adb…425bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…d1bdbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…7718backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…df20backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…5adabacked Yes | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 45c | 75.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 39c | 70.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 72c | 70.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…fe46backed No | 26c | 65.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 58.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 30c | 56.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 30c | 54.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…7c78backed No | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…887ebacked Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 23c | 45.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…7c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…bb6abacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc0…ba48backed Yes | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 42.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…3ac8backed Yes | 68c | 23.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.