Tennis · resolved market
Athens Open: Marianne Argyrokastriti vs Lilli Tagger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ccb0e62b1223fa15012140c228293c1f2b16cdbaa3a67e605d1ea6047c1bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilli Taggerof Marianne Argyrokastriti, Lilli Tagger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 4c | 33,896$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.76 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 12,179$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.01 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 5,226$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 4,005$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 3,195$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 2,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 2,046$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 530 | 43%228 W · 302 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 1c | 1,771$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 1,476$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 1,079$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 1,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 4c | 1,002$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 907.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 4c | 741.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 4c | 619.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 4c | 603.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…0f88backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 476$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…ad4cbacked Marianne Argyrokastriti | 2c | 410.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 379.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Marianne Argyrokastriti | 3c | 360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.