Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e4c83ac560465e5eebf0caab10fb1a95830f440fae58a30733e34fd9ee0112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 24c | 457.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 359.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 28c | 355.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 27c | 279.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 245$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 27c | 155.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 154.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 145.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 137.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 38c | 127.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 110.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 108.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 107.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 95.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 12c | 94.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 83.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 65c | 82.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 25c | 78.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 70c | 75.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 70.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 70c | 68.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 74c | 63.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 73c | 63.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 63.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 23c | 55.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 31c | 50.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 66c | 48.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 21c | 48.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…d26ebacked Yes | 31c | 47.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 70c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 44.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…0fe2backed Yes | 30c | 42.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18f…5c31backed Yes | 31c | 42.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 40.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a62…1ccebacked No | 76c | 36.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 69c | 34.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 68c | 33.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…0c2ebacked No | 69c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…b5abbacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd839…26ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 21.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed No | 70c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1556backed No | 67c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 20.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…e792backed No | 72c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 14.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 77c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…546cbacked No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.