Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48ba4475b5366f2c0f308870c4018dcb007a1d0c454cb0d269c8f59c19ebffd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 26c | 2,260$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 70c | 359.49$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 21c | 337.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 16c | 326.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 12c | 257$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 237.2$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 212.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 168.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 157.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 136.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 77c | 133$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 37c | 126.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 38c | 124.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 122.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 111.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 33c | 96.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 34c | 82.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 69c | 81.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 37c | 75.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 31c | 73.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…b356backed No | 68c | 71.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…e486backed No | 79c | 68.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 59.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Yes | 33c | 57.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 49.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 29c | 48.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 22c | 46.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 32c | 43.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed No | 67c | 43.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…e8bfbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 67c | 36.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 72c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…f983backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed No | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 80c | 22.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.