Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c280f3b62b0357496e5da0f11ecaa6381173e7027920f52e8592ca282c7af25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00b5…1556backed No | 1c | 2,572$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 10c | 1,174$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 6c | 906.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 77c | 481.87$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 6c | 307$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 75c | 207.7$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 207.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 64c | 204.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 159.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 143.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 38c | 122.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…2ab1backed No | 28c | 118.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 78c | 103.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 58c | 97.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 58c | 95.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 47c | 94.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 36c | 93.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 46c | 81.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 39c | 72.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 25c | 68.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 68.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 59c | 66.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 50.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 63c | 49.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 30c | 48.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 47.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 33c | 42.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 70c | 41.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 39.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…23acbacked Yes | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 35.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 32.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 33c | 31.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 71c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 77c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 53c | 25.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 24.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed No | 71c | 23.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 59c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.