South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e813ba2083724eabbbf8264ecf3e7558e49d282351a28df91b7d98a5edea08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +657.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Under | 22c | 713.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 535.64$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 76c | 111.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 21c | 109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 77c | 46.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Over | 78c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Tigres de la UANL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.