South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ba0bcd6aa80af96f26b2118f9b0f7ba681564cbdb2c2ea3fed593176f3310b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigres de la UANLof Deportivo Toluca FC, Tigres de la UANL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Tigres de la UANL | 68c | 161$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Tigres de la UANL | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Tigres de la UANL | 62c | 143$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tigres de la UANL | 75c | 125.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Tigres de la UANL | 62c | 122$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Tigres de la UANL | 72c | 105.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Tigres de la UANL | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Tigres de la UANL | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Tigres de la UANL | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Tigres de la UANL | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Tigres de la UANL | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Tigres de la UANL | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Tigres de la UANL | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.