Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f8ddc62328b2c2c8738f6336b7e9ed714eb1a71874c707a97fe50eac0b5502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Minaur, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48de…95babacked Arnaldi | 57c | 1,357$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.71 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minaur | 43c | 1,028$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.9 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Arnaldi | 76c | 492.7$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Minaur | 46c | 357.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Minaur | 49c | 306.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Minaur | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Arnaldi | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Minaur | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Arnaldi | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Arnaldi | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…1b92backed Arnaldi | 56c | 176$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Minaur | 45c | 143.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…d910backed Arnaldi | 54c | 107.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…05fcbacked Minaur | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Minaur | 43c | 59.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minaur | 46c | 55.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Minaur | 47c | 53.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Arnaldi | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 267 | 59.6%159 W · 108 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Minaur | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Minaur | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Arnaldi | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Arnaldi | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Arnaldi | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Minaur | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs ArnaldiMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.