Tennis · resolved market
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Bytom (Poland), clay: Chloe Paquet vs Ariana Geerlings Martinez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc306dfe7803482b227fcd6b56c5fbee6638c60b02a6538154e4e9996f32abb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ariana Geerlings Martinezof Chloe Paquet, Ariana Geerlings Martinez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chloe Paquet | 22c | 12,781$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.77 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 78c | 12,277$9,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.04 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…cf29backed Chloe Paquet | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Chloe Paquet | 26c | 810$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 77c | 702$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 436 | 52.1%227 W · 209 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chloe Paquet | 20c | 559.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Chloe Paquet | 25c | 472$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…bee1backed Chloe Paquet | 20c | 452.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Chloe Paquet | 20c | 302.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chloe Paquet | 22c | 224.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 71c | 196.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 258 | 55%142 W · 116 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Chloe Paquet | 28c | 160.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 991 | 48.6%482 W · 509 L | +43.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Chloe Paquet | 26c | 143.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 381 | 48.3%184 W · 197 L | +28.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 79c | 125.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chloe Paquet | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Chloe Paquet | 29c | 96.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 69.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 74c | 66.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 336 | 48.5%163 W · 173 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 316 | 57.3%181 W · 135 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 72c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,254 | 52.1%653 W · 601 L | +45.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 417 | 58.5%244 W · 173 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 421 | 59.1%249 W · 172 L | +25.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 329 | 63.8%210 W · 119 L | +36.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 392 | 57.7%226 W · 166 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 466 | 58.6%273 W · 193 L | +24.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 406 | 59.9%243 W · 163 L | +30.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 395 | 60.3%238 W · 157 L | +28.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Ariana Geerlings Martinez | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 383 | 58.2%223 W · 160 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.