Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Penn Quakers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc307ad3cddfbe65593a14135b4d72c597ffafce853f17161c1f5d9abe249c10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Quakersof Penn Quakers, Columbia Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Columbia Lions | 52c | 1,422$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 1,403$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Penn Quakers | 50c | 800.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Columbia Lions | 53c | 790$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.52 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Columbia Lions | 51c | 336.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penn Quakers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Columbia Lions | 53c | 158.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Penn Quakers | 47c | 151.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…d68abacked Columbia Lions | 53c | 132.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Columbia Lions | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Penn Quakers | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Penn Quakers | 49c | 87.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Penn Quakers | 49c | 87.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Penn Quakers | 48c | 87.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Penn Quakers | 49c | 81.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Penn Quakers | 49c | 80.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Columbia Lions | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penn Quakers | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked Columbia Lions | 52c | 30.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…3e44backed Columbia Lions | 52c | 28.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Columbia Lions | 52c | 28.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Columbia Lions | 66c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-2.5)this page
- Columbia Lions vs. Penn QuakersPenn Quakers won
- Columbia Lions vs. Penn Quakers: O/U 146.5Under won
- Columbia Lions vs. Penn Quakers: O/U 147.5Under won
- Columbia Lions vs. Penn Quakers: O/U 148.5Under won
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-3.5)Penn Quakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.