MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31181beb347a903b1f84b8ae625fd4c2b9e8aa04305e4627d3770966fe1c21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 7,882$4,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783.31 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 1,850$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.99 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 1,720$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.22 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 1,113$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.98 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 810$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.8 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 386$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 311.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 30.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 29.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.