MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc347f3fed0f7c29528b14b7162114e9c9b582a221315858e60fdb9692a11d6f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Cardinals, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e4…a3bdbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 159,056$73,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,914.68 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Cardinals | 54c | 93,221$50,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,339.34 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 31,413$16,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,963.02 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 21c | 29,338$6,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160.88 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 20,511$9,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,924.5 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 2c | 8,508$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 35c | 7,938$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.68 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 6,732$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,607.4 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 5,599$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.5 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Cardinals | 54c | 3,398$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.25 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Cardinals | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Cardinals | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Cardinals | 9c | 2,469$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Cardinals | 1c | 2,147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Cardinals | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…5744backed Cardinals | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cardinals | 2c | 1,480$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Diamondbacks | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.99 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Cardinals | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…ede5backed Cardinals | 54c | 1,102$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Cardinals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Cardinals | 54c | 927.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Diamondbacks | 57c | 732$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Cardinals | 55c | 453$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.15 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 450$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 1,293 | 47.3%611 W · 682 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cardinals | 3c | 444$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 623 | 46.2%288 W · 335 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…15cabacked Cardinals | 53c | 429.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Cardinals | 28c | 393$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 311.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cardinals | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 234$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 223.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 187 | 49.2%92 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Diamondbacks | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 195.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cardinals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cardinals | 22c | 165.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Cardinals | 55c | 126.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Cardinals | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Cardinals | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Cardinals | 28c | 108.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Cardinals | 54c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cardinals | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Cardinals | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Cardinals | 55c | 76.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 259 | 52.5%136 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Cardinals | 50c | 75.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Cardinals | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Diamondbacks | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cardinals | 52c | 57.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Diamondbacks | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Diamondbacks | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…a45ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…275cbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 49.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Diamondbacks | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Cardinals | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 247 | 51%126 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Cardinals | 54c | 38.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Cardinals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Diamondbacks | 45c | 32.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 25.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Diamondbacks | 80c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.