Music · resolved market
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc388c659a277c6408128e56de5ebb7fb6c13a3f02299063b71152f766c4cd57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f39…7e2bbacked Yes | 8c | 917$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 788.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…d4c2backed Yes | 8c | 743$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…38a2backed Yes | 9c | 650$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67a…f5debacked Yes | 9c | 650$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…0924backed Yes | 9c | 609$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…7f21backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…ea7dbacked Yes | 9c | 499$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 4c | 446.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d39…9b8dbacked Yes | 10c | 430$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 3c | 351.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…6abcbacked Yes | 4c | 351.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 341.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 8c | 309$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…0970backed Yes | 4c | 295.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…c445backed Yes | 9c | 225.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 198.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…5f5abacked Yes | 6c | 197.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…ea4fbacked Yes | 17c | 61.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Die With A Smile - Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "I Just Might - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Lush Life - Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "back to friends - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.