Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc397965a2f934505547ce7be9b206e939e3f98d135555d4b4625280b81f98d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 15c | 3,929$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.2 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 940.28$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 16c | 246.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 31c | 244.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 45c | 216.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 55c | 147$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0904backed Over | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 63c | 63.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 56c | 53.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 63c | 44.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 63c | 42.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 63c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 60c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 61c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.