Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434b6a48a56a00c4c93ad9d713bcc9211b2cf9c2d552c9a7255f58631aa74d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Kaiserslauternof VfL Wolfsburg, 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed VfL Wolfsburg | 17c | 3,987$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.9 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 1,902$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.89 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 39c | 1,438$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c5…5ad1backed VfL Wolfsburg | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 73c | 362.05$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 78c | 223.22$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed VfL Wolfsburg | 25c | 208.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 80c | 134.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 63c | 66.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 62c | 59.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed VfL Wolfsburg | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 73c | 48.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed VfL Wolfsburg | 38c | 46.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed VfL Wolfsburg | 30c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 75c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)this page
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.