Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x631d3a88bf8b7eda1f6ea266eccb65d664e6916c206879115331d6c569af6736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 5,975$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.43 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 4,649$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.87 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 3,964$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…88c1backed Over | 66c | 1,082$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 994$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.62 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 51c | 978.83$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 34c | 669.26$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.46 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 284.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed Over | 23c | 278.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 268.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 177.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 77c | 156.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 41c | 114.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 100.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 69c | 84.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Under | 41c | 71.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 30c | 50.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 38.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 35c | 32.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 34c | 31.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…2c85backed Under | 63c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 64c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…a931backed Under | 72c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.