Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577f36da9aff45324cad990f7878b91fe6e0280d7c06df66b73b15c427c469a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Under | 58c | 5,000$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 49c | 4,082$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 3,885$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 2,022$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 9c | 1,720$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.68 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 1,642$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.48 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 50c | 883.04$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.37 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 8c | 612.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.51 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 418.35$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 5c | 392.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 44c | 330.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…ac4cbacked Under | 41c | 280.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 57c | 275.52$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 62c | 209.15$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 23c | 207$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 158.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 15c | 155.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 40c | 125.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 66c | 115$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 29c | 90.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…245fbacked Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 59c | 69.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 73c | 61.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 65c | 49.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 48.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 54c | 44.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 41.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 30c | 39.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 52c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 42c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Over | 51c | 21.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 80c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5this page
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.