Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c5685d6893cd205ec55f2be795a1ef80e6a842fcb12a4d285eacacf3b9491a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Shelton | 46c | 1,043$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.48 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Molcan | 63c | 1,003$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.66 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Shelton | 51c | 950.75$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.44 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Molcan | 46c | 739.92$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Shelton | 68c | 431.6$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Molcan | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…6165backed Molcan | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Shelton | 48c | 299.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Molcan | 37c | 281.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Shelton | 67c | 222.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Molcan | 58c | 218.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 523 | 41.5%217 W · 306 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed Shelton | 47c | 213.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…0fb1backed Molcan | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Shelton | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Molcan | 53c | 195.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…313bbacked Molcan | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Molcan | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Shelton | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Shelton | 66c | 104.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Molcan | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Shelton | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Molcan | 53c | 97.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Molcan | 48c | 96.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Molcan | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Shelton | 54c | 72.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Molcan | 40c | 71.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Shelton | 47c | 65.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Molcan | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Molcan | 39c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Shelton | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e9…48dfbacked Molcan | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Molcan | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Molcan | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Molcan | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Molcan | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Molcan | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Molcan | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Shelton | 47c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Molcan | 53c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Molcan | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)this page
- Alex Molcan vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Molcan vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Molcan vs SheltonShelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.