MLB · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43c1dfaed33f06c65fde6753376a2377ebbd097018c0892c38b95969090024d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 23c | 2,740$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 498.57$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 322.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 276$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 27c | 225.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 27c | 135.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Colorado Rockies | 35c | 117.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 109.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 105.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 34c | 79.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Colorado Rockies | 29c | 54.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 41.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Colorado Rockies | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.