MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1941a979db5cdd9e43ab1299e18be7b2d6e17e2e6b881611403ebb52f1a88f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 104,639$52,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,319.36 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 50c | 77,777$38,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,888.5 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 8,934$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 5,286$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 2,576$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 1,656$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 1,598$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.56 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 49c | 1,576$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,387$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.86 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 1,281$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 51c | 761.3$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.41 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 51c | 687$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 653.81$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.67 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 49c | 562.63$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.94 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 50c | 545.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 490$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 401.1$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 51c | 272.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 50c | 233$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 49c | 231.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 228.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 159.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 29c | 158.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 110.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 53c | 104.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 51c | 99.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Over | 50c | 97.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 51c | 85.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Over | 50c | 56.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 52.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 77c | 45.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 28c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 49c | 35.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 29.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 45c | 29.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 55c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 50c | 24.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 57c | 22.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 47c | 21.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 51c | 20.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.