MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f28639bb0e0d3aa62487ceed25b17bc74fc84c4185d9641886d7c52f01336cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 3,263$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 2,213$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,380$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 1,151$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 29c | 1,128$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.78 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 942$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 39c | 928.97$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.14 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 908.85$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.81 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 770.6$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.34 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 57c | 608.2$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.53 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 481.94$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 39c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 375$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 55c | 260.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 59c | 238.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 58c | 212.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 18c | 197.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 39c | 173.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 46c | 114.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Over | 60c | 81.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 49c | 79.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 41c | 63.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 51c | 59.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 59.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 54.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 43c | 52.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d05…ce70backed Under | 46c | 49.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 41c | 36.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 51c | 35.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 48c | 30.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 28.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.