MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc44f7563f416296655a4c04ac4670381b1c93d3a0a09c9d54efdce9171b943c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Marlins, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Dodgers | 67c | 4,462$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.62 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 33c | 3,029$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.48 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 33c | 2,121$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.96 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Marlins | 34c | 1,190$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.75 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dodgers | 59c | 900$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Marlins | 33c | 634.29$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.35 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Marlins | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…49aabacked Dodgers | 66c | 501.64$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 42c | 489.56$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Dodgers | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Dodgers | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Dodgers | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dodgers | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 33c | 223.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Dodgers | 64c | 156.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Marlins | 36c | 143.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Marlins | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Marlins | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 41c | 97.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Marlins | 36c | 53.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dodgers | 67c | 45.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Dodgers | 67c | 35.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Marlins | 35c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Dodgers | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.