Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4562f0dbdab687ad2ff41c66501590c2f8322c03c5aa4b0906e6c8d4cd20dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 72c | 22,553$16,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,314.88 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 18,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 7,345$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 28c | 4,239$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.79 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,808$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.28 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 28c | 2,377$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.28 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 29c | 1,029$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.64 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 28c | 932.33$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 864.35$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.23 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 544.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 76c | 273.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…2680backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 28c | 196.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 10c | 175.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 105.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 28c | 71.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked Yes | 30c | 70.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Yes | 27c | 44.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.