Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4572f8be28e9d7dc5a3ff0f42c0a1b4cbd3ce9c1f48ab43b1ed877b9e40ad65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 61c | 302.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 272$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 249.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 230.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 195.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 169.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 128.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 42c | 123.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 103$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…9fc8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 81.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 73.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 58.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 52.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 46.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 40.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 30.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.