Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4625d8f42c5473b28f1c5d4eb18d674b139436f6558125c04e86760be408914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 3,590$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 3,084$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 77c | 2,746$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 22c | 2,378$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.17 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 77c | 1,949$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.33 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…d9afbacked Over | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 72c | 698.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 29c | 364.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 23c | 311.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e5…6f7abacked Over | 77c | 283.38$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 280.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 244.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Over | 77c | 212.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 158.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 77c | 139.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 77c | 129.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 77c | 129.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 121.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 24c | 86.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Under | 25c | 67.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…2d17backed Over | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 77c | 58.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 77c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…bc03backed Over | 78c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 73c | 36.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…5cb5backed Over | 77c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…addabacked Over | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…5e45backed Over | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 78c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.