Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645a072bfde8146e276eef2de79a11f15cf66b325697cd2ae95c2a4c5180b4eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 55c | 5,221$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 12c | 3,227$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 69c | 1,628$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 3c | 1,350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 70c | 1,250$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 57c | 1,075$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 918.03$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 867.64$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.7 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 70c | 699.83$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Over | 74c | 677.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 30c | 656.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.84 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 30c | 501.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.89 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 280.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 198.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 64c | 187.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 36c | 187.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 160.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Under | 72c | 155$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 57c | 109$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…58fdbacked Over | 46c | 100.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 71c | 80.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Over | 80c | 75.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 26c | 73.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…96ecbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 51c | 28.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 71c | 20.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.