Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c8ee2bc4cf445ca8f20b8647698cd38c8edff228faa2f74e2fc333b4f28458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 939.75$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 628.85$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 49c | 514.58$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.01 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 50c | 229.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 51c | 210$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 54c | 112.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Yes | 49c | 63.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…fdc0backed Yes | 50c | 32.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 51c | 31.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 41c | 30.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e4…7aa0backed Yes | 49c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 48c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…33bbbacked No | 52c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…8672backed No | 52c | 19.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.