TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Under48c14,184$6,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,808.236453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over51c10,538$5,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,142.188037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c10,090$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.1733244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over52c7,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3608752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over52c5,926$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.7153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…15bdbacked Over53c5,578$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.891376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Over52c4,808$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.694854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Under55c4,111$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c3,064$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.431,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c2,212$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.442,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over52c1,619$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.399856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under52c1,550$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.451,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over51c1,373$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.7718545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under48c1,092$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.371,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under45c1,081$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.9238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c1,075$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.793,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea8…ddc0backed Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over53c955$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.8513461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over53c850$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.928248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.232934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under18c671.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under49c615.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under22c537.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under33c526.41$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.111,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.718759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c381.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.366448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under48c356.73$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.235145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over51c277.07$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a40…afaabacked Over52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…5544backed Under47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under55c193.34$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3412832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0126…4047backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.313259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.316659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over52c185.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.55068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Over53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.57439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…7aaabacked Over52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98c…6596backed Over53c145.28$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993a…1e2fbacked Over46c126.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.12268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick43cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over67c120.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8810552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Over80c118.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Over53c106.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.282748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20f…fcaabacked Over79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218100%8 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4811060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over51c98.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3420957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Over51c94.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.221136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under47c90.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over45c87.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.244273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf0ce…5310backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over67c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under48c66.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7914642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over52c62.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.812162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2025659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…04b5backed Over80c59.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.620540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf303…7ee6backed Over53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over56c51.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.838143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under47c50.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.946251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under47c50.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9321051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Under48c43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Under48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204161%25 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbbf…06d3backed Over53c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.271478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3008…2489backed Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked Over52c39.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.121533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over52c38.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4813066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9209…dc9bbacked Over52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.465158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.466058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.745442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…d654backed Over52c37.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0414758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Over50c36.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.022259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed Under49c36.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.665246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under45c34.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.329838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ad1…f3a6backed Over52c33.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3202…b190backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efb…c73ebacked Over53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16645.5%30 W · 36 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2823…eb3dbacked Over54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over74c29.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.728665.1%56 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Over53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…29b4backed Under53c27.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Over54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+64.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over45c25.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1911045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Over51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Over51c20.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Over52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.48243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.