World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47ca8c63150c585a6312fe062a656ebb31f6e126eeadbbeaa71fc07380507da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,024$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 263.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 234.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 179.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 66.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 62c | 65.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 63c | 63.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 62c | 59.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 52.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 51.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 50.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 50.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 43.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 40.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 33c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 39.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 37c | 35.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 60c | 34.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 26.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdf…eba6backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.