Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48efb6c2122b1ee05b438bc4aafdbaeef2fa9034694bda73c414ba344afe60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSU Tigersof Arkansas Razorbacks, LSU Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU Tigers | 45c | 1,368$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 55c | 1,283$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked LSU Tigers | 46c | 462$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed LSU Tigers | 51c | 302.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed LSU Tigers | 46c | 302$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 282$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed LSU Tigers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)this page
- LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 163.5Over won
- LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.