TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof LSU Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Arkansas Razorbacks73c7,500$5,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.1336944.2%163 W · 206 L-19.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed LSU Tigers19c4,744$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.528817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed LSU Tigers0c4,560$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6629012.1%35 W · 255 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed LSU Tigers23c3,299$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.7944146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed LSU Tigers30c2,977$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005024%12 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed LSU Tigers26c2,822$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.6322050.5%111 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed LSU Tigers10c2,681$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.642,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed LSU Tigers26c2,633$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9421149.3%104 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed LSU Tigers19c2,064$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40046446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks73c2,020$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.095,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x902f…858cbacked LSU Tigers6c1,609$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked LSU Tigers15c1,136$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4752928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked LSU Tigers19c906.99$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.044,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed LSU Tigers21c865.74$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.565,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked LSU Tigers21c849.99$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7613842.8%59 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed LSU Tigers29c651.11$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.583,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed LSU Tigers16c616.87$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6918654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed LSU Tigers23c599.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13623028.3%65 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked LSU Tigers27c563.08$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8387047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed LSU Tigers38c554.55$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.733836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdd…55babacked LSU Tigers44c547.27$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.781838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas Razorbacks69c538.23$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.771,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed LSU Tigers34c534.03$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9818844.7%84 W · 104 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Arkansas Razorbacks80c527.47$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0836535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked LSU Tigers35c417.38$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.084843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed LSU Tigers27c396.62$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed LSU Tigers28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fadabacked LSU Tigers17c352.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Arkansas Razorbacks72c334.8$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7412045.8%55 W · 65 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Arkansas Razorbacks59c334.51$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.791,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c03…811ebacked LSU Tigers32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed LSU Tigers10c260.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25260%0 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked LSU Tigers18c257.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.391,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked LSU Tigers30c257.7$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.161,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed LSU Tigers30c225.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.641,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Arkansas Razorbacks59c206$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4672248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed LSU Tigers11c204.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.233,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked LSU Tigers18c199.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed LSU Tigers43c199.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7894036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6570…32ccbacked Arkansas Razorbacks80c196.13$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.132839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x873d…97b5backed LSU Tigers29c179.57$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.97324.7%18 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked LSU Tigers18c165.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010043%43 W · 57 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67a8…1f1ebacked LSU Tigers41c160.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.613946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Arkansas Razorbacks66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5248462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed LSU Tigers20c135.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7122953.7%123 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked LSU Tigers37c130$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54316.3%7 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b0…3ac2backed Arkansas Razorbacks76c125.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed LSU Tigers23c122$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.062,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x888d…2dd6backed LSU Tigers21c119.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca46…dc0fbacked LSU Tigers19c107.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…7b98backed LSU Tigers44c105.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed LSU Tigers20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked LSU Tigers16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bc…963cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.925869%40 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick71cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Arkansas Razorbacks71c81.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.755840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb470…ba61backed LSU Tigers33c81.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc995…3053backed LSU Tigers28c76.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72050%10 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed LSU Tigers37c70.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.33,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f6…6a9bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.522142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed LSU Tigers48c61.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8629954.2%162 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b8a…96f6backed LSU Tigers33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed LSU Tigers36c54.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8329442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked LSU Tigers38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks58c46.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4370349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed LSU Tigers30c46.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810252%53 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc226…497dbacked LSU Tigers48c41.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf121…6903backed LSU Tigers30c40.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…47afbacked LSU Tigers28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28459.5%50 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Arkansas Razorbacks59c39.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.499848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed LSU Tigers28c38.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.817943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Arkansas Razorbacks68c34.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.312748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e03…f336backed Arkansas Razorbacks56c34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…c2eebacked Arkansas Razorbacks78c33.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Arkansas Razorbacks54c30.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.87955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.952470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7345…7cf5backed Arkansas Razorbacks56c28.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Arkansas Razorbacks68c25.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.233135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6385…aecfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks71c22.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.341172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2734…22efbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.817254.2%39 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…8dabbacked Arkansas Razorbacks67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.