WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4c904f0d97dd5b23acc21699d224232618890ee094e6dd4f477384fa85cb76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Mercury, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mercury | 32c | 13,033$4,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,212.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 23c | 8,971$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.71 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aces | 56c | 3,805$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Aces | 57c | 3,775$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 43c | 3,574$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.68 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 44c | 1,970$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.48 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 43c | 1,878$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.44 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…8f37backed Mercury | 42c | 1,753$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Aces | 58c | 1,714$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Aces | 57c | 1,287$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2a70backed Aces | 58c | 1,172$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Mercury | 26c | 1,158$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 41c | 1,032$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.05 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Aces | 61c | 953.92$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Aces | 62c | 800.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Aces | 72c | 768.17$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.11 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Mercury | 41c | 578.52$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Aces | 56c | 536.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Mercury | 43c | 529$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.47 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Mercury | 6c | 380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Aces | 58c | 345.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury | 44c | 296.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Aces | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Aces | 59c | 254.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…bb3cbacked Mercury | 42c | 239.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 44c | 227.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d19abacked Aces | 57c | 226.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Aces | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Mercury | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Aces | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Aces | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…c726backed Mercury | 42c | 192.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Aces | 55c | 185.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…3524backed Aces | 57c | 181.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Aces | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…e927backed Aces | 58c | 173.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…1139backed Aces | 58c | 168.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Aces | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Aces | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.35per pick | 47cpaid | +64%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…cbf8backed Aces | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…3a84backed Aces | 67c | 118.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Mercury | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Aces | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…a42bbacked Mercury | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…b126backed Mercury | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Aces | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Mercury | 42c | 80.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury | 42c | 78.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Aces | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Aces | 59c | 72.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 40c | 58.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Aces | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…776dbacked Aces | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…5ddfbacked Aces | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…2cfdbacked Aces | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed Mercury | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Aces | 52c | 40.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…5543backed Mercury | 43c | 38.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…74ddbacked Mercury | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…2ba3backed Aces | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Mercury | 43c | 32.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Mercury | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Mercury | 43c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8aaebacked Aces | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Aces | 55c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…c69cbacked Aces | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…13e3backed Aces | 57c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f06…09bcbacked Aces | 57c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.