South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e618cb4e2b55d57ba0befafb3364d7323292da4a311477131892d0bd7a726f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coritiba FBCof Botafogo FR, Coritiba FBC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Botafogo FR | 25c | 1,762$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.32 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Coritiba FBC | 78c | 1,144$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Botafogo FR | 22c | 471.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Coritiba FBC | 75c | 338.05$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 122.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Coritiba FBC | 77c | 121.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Coritiba FBC | 77c | 121.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Coritiba FBC | 77c | 121.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Botafogo FR | 26c | 116.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Botafogo FR | 26c | 87.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 40.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Coritiba FBC | 77c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Coritiba FBC | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Coritiba FBC won
- Spread: Coritiba FBC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.